We Tested Everything. Then We Reset.
What changed, why, and where the old record lives.
For the first few weeks we handicapped and tracked everything in the open while we tested what actually works at the windows. Testing is only worth anything if you act on it, so we did. On October 13, 2026 we started a clean record under a simpler, tighter approach.
Nothing was deleted
Every pick from the original method is still in our database and still public. The trackers now show our current method only, so the numbers you see are the numbers of the approach we stand behind today. The earlier picks have their own page, Original Method Record, with the full results, the good and the bad, calculated from the same database.
What we learned
- We tested our rating figures against thousands of past races. The top-rated horse on figures alone won about 23%, which is not enough by itself.
- The betting favorite wins about 35%, and favorites alone still lose money over time. Nobody beats the takeout by accident.
- The best spot was where the two agree: when our top figure is also the favorite, that horse won about 38%, a modest but real step up.
- Exactas and trifecta tickets built from our ratings did not beat tickets built from the prices. We rebuilt them around the market and around the horse we pick to win.
- Big prices were exciting and unprofitable. Long-shot picks win rarely and cost the most.
Before and after
Original method
- Selections driven mainly by our rating figures
- Stake sizes of $25 and up per selection
- Exotics built from the ratings
- Picks on long shots when the figures liked them
Current method
- Figures and the market read together, with the favorite as the starting point
- One standard $2 wager, so results compare to any other source
- Exactas and trifectas keyed on our win pick, priced off the board
- A written pass list: short prices, long prices, off tracks, wide-open races
Why a $2 wager?
It is the standard unit of horse racing, and what the payouts on the official charts are quoted against. Tracking every pick at $2 means our win rate and return are easy to read and easy to check, and nobody has to guess how big the bets were. Your own stakes are yours to size. Just remember that the winning percentage does not depend on how much you bet, and the return does not get better because you bet more.
Is this a promise of profit?
No. Horse racing takes a cut out of every dollar bet, and even good handicapping has losing days, weeks and months. What we promise is the part we control: every pick logged before the race, every result posted, nothing edited afterward, and a clear record of what worked and what did not.
For information and entertainment only. Past results do not guarantee future results, and no selection is a recommendation to wager. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.